The Big Four Recession Indicators: August 2025 Employment

Published on September 8, 2025

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In August, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 22,000 while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.3%.

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