The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Published on September 16, 2025

Nominal retail sales in August were up 0.63% month-over-month and up 5.00% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.25% month-over-month and up 2.00% year-over-year.

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G17: G.17 Data for August 2025 are now available

September 16, 2025
Industrial production and capacity utilization data for August 2025 are now available.Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere e

The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production

September 16, 2025
Industrial production unexpectedly rose in August, increasing 0.1% from the previous month. This was higher than the expected -0.1% monthly decline and up from July's downwardly revised -0.4% decline. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 0.9%.