FHFA House Price Index Unexpectedly Rose in August

Published on October 28, 2025

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) unexpectedly rose to 435.3 in August, marking a 0.4% monthly increase that ended four consecutive months of declines and exceeded the projected -0.1% decline.

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UBS Leaving Switzerland is Edging Closer to Reality

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Money can’t buy you love and right now no one knows that better than UBS Group AG. Since the Swiss bank helpfully rescued its cockroach-riddled rival Credit Suisse in a state-brokered emergency takeover, its reward has been government plans to whack it with punishing new capital rules and a lagging stock price.

An Unsustainable Equilibrium

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As I detailed in August, our most reliable valuation measures – based on their relationship with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns across a century of market history – suggest that the expectations of investors for long-term market returns are wildly misaligned with the returns implied by discounted cash flows.