An Unsustainable Equilibrium

Published on October 28, 2025

As I detailed in August, our most reliable valuation measures – based on their relationship with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns across a century of market history – suggest that the expectations of investors for long-term market returns are wildly misaligned with the returns implied by discounted cash flows.

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FHFA House Price Index Unexpectedly Rose in August

October 28, 2025
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) unexpectedly rose to 435.3 in August, marking a 0.4% monthly increase that ended four consecutive months of declines and exceeded the projected -0.1% decline.

Is the Growth of Evergreen Funds Good or Bad for Private Markets?

October 28, 2025
Before making an allocation using an evergreen fund, it is essential to recognize and anticipate issues that could arise. Drawdown vehicles could still act as a viable solution, especially for reputable general partners who feel it is necessary to lock up capital for the long term to generate robust returns. The private market landscape has evolved tremendously, and it is exciting that evergreen o