Fed Hawkishness Misreads Inflation; Stay Ready to Buy

Published on November 18, 2025

Markets wobbled as Washington’s shutdown drama ended, but I don’t view last week’s pullback as the start of a bear market. The Dow just printed fresh highs, breadth rotated toward quality and defensive stocks, and the weakness centered on AI-linked capex stories repricing risks associated with the capex buildouts.

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As the Government Reopens, Can Investors Breathe a Sigh of Relief?

November 18, 2025
The government shutdown came to an end last night after 43 days, making it the longest shutdown in history. We will leave it to the political commentators to pass judgment on what it means for the decision-makers in Washington.

Does the US Now Have a Casino Economy? Yes and No:

November 18, 2025
There is a frenetic, sweaty-palm feel to the US economy lately. Markets are looking frothy and consumers are anxious, and meanwhile the gambling and stock markets are converging as people bet on all sorts of strange assets and events.