The Hormuz Peace Dividend Goes to Stocks, Not Bonds

Published on June 16, 2026

Financial markets generally displayed exuberance Monday after the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell to the lowest since early March and the S&P 500 Index surged, leaving it just a few points below its all-time high reached at the start of the month.

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Oil Falls Below $80 With US-Iran Deal Set to Add Wave of Supply

June 16, 2026
Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz boosted expectations for a revival in supply, with leading Wall Street banks reducing their price forecasts and regional benchmarks collapsing.

The Proposed Rules for Kalshi and Polymarket Are Backward

June 16, 2026
What prediction markets add is something equities never offered: a way for thousands of people to sell small bits of information — a logistics clerk’s observation, a local journalist’s hunch — that are individually worthless and collectively a forecast.