The Big Four Recession Indicators: Employment

Published on November 6, 2026

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In October, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 while the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%

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Employment Report: 165K Jobs Added in October, Better Than Expected

November 6, 2026
The latest employment report showed that 165,000 jobs were added in October, compared to September's 60,000 gain. This figure was significantly higher than the projected addition of 65,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased slightly from 4.2% to 4.1%.

Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 213% Above Trend in October

November 6, 2026
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 213% above its long-term trend at the end of October.