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Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 213% Above Trend in October
Published on November 6, 2026
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 213% above its long-term trend at the end of October.
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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Employment
November 6, 2026
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In October, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 while the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: October 2026
November 6, 2026
Based on October's S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 44.6 is 189% above its arithmetic mean, 217% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.